January 2020


        2020 began with a clash of arms with the American military strike in Baghdad that eliminated the Iranian number two and the man really responsible for Iranian military activities in the Middle East, General Qassem Soleimani. It is too early to analyse the consequences, but the markets did so by putting a risk price on a barrel of Brent oil at $70, an ounce of gold at $1580 and by pushing the recent listing of Ramco shares down by 10%.


        At this time of year, CyclOpe prepares its forecasts which will be presented to its members on 20 January. It is obvious that we have to integrate a geopolitical context that is more elusive than ever with an element that is very difficult to read, that of the American elections of November 2020. In a few days, CyclOpe readers will find a special issue of the summary including all of our forecasts, but this year with geopolitical and climatic variances that are more evident than ever. However, in January 2019, an average drop of the CyclOpe indicator of 10% was expected for the year. The real decrease was 8%, which means we gave a result that was very close to correct!


        To all friends and readers of CyclOpe, it remains for me to wish you a happy 2020 both personally and professionally and even more so for our dear planet.


Philippe Chalmin


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